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Tag Archives: Dick Smith

By (Bye) the Numbers

09 Friday Dec 2016

Posted by Burning Manager in Uncategorized

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Betsy DeVos, Bill Gates, Borat, Dick Smith, Facebook, Google, Harvard Business Review, HBR, Kazakhstan, Mike Moore, Nate Silver, OECD, Ricahrd Branson, Steve Jobs, Trump

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A few things have happened recently that have had me look again at numbers and as usual I shall try to pull the threads together. While our near neighbours New Zealand might be reeling from their seismic events of late (7.6 on the Richster Scale), a less dramatic but no less significant event has happened in Australia in the last week or so. The much-vaunted Australian education system took a further hit with the announcement of the OECD education rankings which showed for mathematics we are now behind the nation glorious of Kazakhstan (of Borat fame). Sobering news indeed.

Then there was the spectre of the Trump election and the appointment of Betsy DeVos (just one ‘S’ from being a quirky 1970s art rock band). Part of the Amway family by marriage it’s pretty certain she will know how to do numbers so perhaps math in the US education system will get some heft. In fact it’s looking like the Trump Cabinet will be pretty well endowed numbers-wise. According to NBC News net worth of $14.5B between them. The Australian national debt only sits $44.5b by comparison.

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Under DeVos there will certainly be lots of math tutoring vouchers available that’s for sure. And the US needs to be up the rankings as well because it, too, falls beneath Kazakhstan AND Australia. Strange that, given when it comes to R&D and real smarts, the US seems to out-rank just about every other nation (Israel aside). Perhaps the quality of school-based education doesn’t count for too much after all? Maybe it’s our University sector that’s all-important? But oh yes we are dropping in those stakes as well (refer previous blogs).

Reflecting on the US Presidential race at a safe distance now, I, and am sure a lot of pundits, are trying to work out what went wrong with the predictions. Nate Silver, the guru amongst pollsters, got it completely wrong. Pollsters got Brexit wrong and even though they were armed with that aberration they still somehow crunched their US pre-polling numbers incorrectly. So when we are told to focus on the numbers and cast aside feelings and impressions we find that the numbers don’t really yield the right answers. In fact the pundit who seemed to predict the election result most accurately did it on ‘gut instinct’ and that was Mike Moore. If you read his website you will see that his assessment based on grass roots discussions was eminently more accurate than Silver’s.

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We are constantly reminded of the presence of big data and I think few of us understand what it is, other than it involves data and it is ..err big! I wonder sometimes whether the glib reference to this is because the data isn’t that big, or that special? Take analytics. The intelligence that sits behind our social media presence and our buying behaviour is now highly sought after with mainstream retailers paying lots for a more acute analysis of our expenditure patterns. Facebook and Google charge huge amounts (cumulatively that is) for Adwords etc. to promote your website and your brand/presence. I’ve done a lot of this and I cannot say that it has been that successful. Apparently the backend of these social media platforms can, with great precision, reach a highly targeted market. What if the models being used were as accurate as Nate Silver’s big data analysis?

When it comes to feelings and hunches the business world stands aghast. We are meant to use data, increasingly available in larger volumes thanks to super-computing, to make decision. Managers are taught to be all knowing scrutineers of numbers. Stock market analysts are great runners of the numbers and yet they seem to, time and again, fail to spot the complete dog that goes down the toilet – your money with it. Take Dick Smith. That turd was finely polished and the analysts got it sold to even the reasonably sophisticated investor and yet if you ever shopped in one of their stores you would immediately call your broker shortly thereafter and relinquish your holding. I can think of no clearer case of going with your gut and avoiding the numbers.

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The latest November edition of the Harvard Business Review ranked the world’s top 100 CEOs. The top three Martin Sorrell, Lars Rebien Sorenmson and Pablo Isla were interviewed in depth. What they said may surprise you. Isla, CEO of Inditex, is one of the world’s largest fashion retailers where one would suppose sales data and customer buying behaviours would be the absolute touchstone of the company. Rather he says ‘I’m gradually learning to be less rational and more emotional.’ He’s not alone. Entrepreneurs like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Richard Branson all placed or place a lot of emphasis on the ‘hunch’. For them it would appear that the gut instinct is more of a business guide than a complex data set.

So next time someone has done the numbers, be it a TV pundit, a politician or a business consultant be very wary. What does your ‘gut’ tell you? Don’t be misled by the whole ‘post-truth’ shtick that’s oscillating around at the moment. Perhaps the lack of respect certain sectors of the population have for ‘experts’ stems not from their lack of understanding of numbers, or the scientific method, or even from a  ‘chip-on-the-shoulder’ reaction to a burgeoning well-educated demographic but a lived experience where the numbers don’t quite stack up on many occasions. For example the economy has been growing, employment has been improving but their standards of living have declined.

So next time you are confronted with a league table, like our ‘dive’ in the math sweep stakes, it might be worth asking what method was used to determine the relative positions, what sample size was used, how was validity and reliability achieved and what vested interests existed for some counties to ‘fluff’ the figures? We might not be as bad as we are told. Go figure!

All Credit to Shorty

20 Wednesday Jan 2016

Posted by Burning Manager in Uncategorized

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AAA, Alan Greenspan, Allianz, Amercian Express, AMEX, ANZ, Bear Stearns, BOQ, Brad Pitt, CDOs, Commonwealth Bank, Deutsche bank, Dick Smith, Get Shorty, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Margot Robbie, Mastercard, NAB, Rating agencies, Steve Carell, Steve Smith, The Big Short

 

file_606778_big-short-cast

I did something a little odd last week. I saw The Big Short with my stock broker. It wasn’t intentional. I had just settled into my seat then along he came with his family and plonked himself down right in front of me. An ex-Goldman Sachs man, I had cause on more than one occasion to lean forward and give him a reminder nudge (of the ‘nod nod’ ‘wink wink’ variety) or comforting hand on shoulder.

Great movie. Eminently watchable, even for those for whom the world of banking and finance holds little interest. It takes the audience on the magic carpet ride that was the Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs) in the US Housing market and the shameless acts of the banks and, worse still, the ratings agencies. The cast were routinely in fine form especially Steve Carell and the very brief interlude by  Margot Robbie explaining what a CDO is, while drinking champagne in her bubble bath, worth the price of the ticket alone.

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I once populated the world of Private Equity in London so have some of the flavour of the heady environment, or more accurately bubble, in which these rarefied species exist. In fact I have been at one time a bubble-dweller myself. Never threw a dwarf – I admit- but did see dwarves thrown. It is, by nature, a high adrenaline ride where self comes before team, comes before company, comes before common good. This is portrayed accurately by the Ryan Gosling character as he sets up his company Deutsche Bank for a fall and himself for a windfall (as a funny aside I right clicked Deutsche to get the correct spelling and it came up with douche which when inserted in a sentence as  ‘douche bank’ sounds remarkably and accurately like something else).

I haven’t come here to bury the banks, nor praise them though. I just want to reflect on some issues around the Customer. What the film does very well is show us how little regard was given to the customer in the all the deception that was the CDO scandal. Wrapped up as much more stable than they were, sub-prime mortgages were bundled and then rated as AAA by the ratings agencies and the banks flicked these on as ‘copper-bottomed’ investments to the unsuspecting institutions and the public. There might be those who would suggest that it’s caveat emptor out there and sophisticated investors must be ever vigilant. While schadenfreude is a lovely cold gazpacho, it is worth reminding ourselves that along with the ‘filthy rich’, local councils and charities were duped into what they thought were sound investments and we all suffer as a result.

Seldom does an evening at home pass (except of course on Netflix) that we aren’t seduced by advertising that the banks are wonderful and they really have our best interests at heart. Take for example Steve Smith, our illustrious cricket captain (and good reliable bloke), who with the assistance of Commonwealth Bank (our largest and of which I am a shareholder) helps out a long-suffering cricket Mum with a makeover while he takes the kids to cricket. Who can CAN make this happen? – Commonwealth Bank of course. This is competing with the ‘NAB gets you’ clearly targeted at small business, until they call in the loan and then really get you. Bank of Queensland poses the question as to whether you can really love a bank? The advert’s underlying thesis is you can – BOQ who else? Try asking Bear Sterns or Lehman Brothers account holders that question.

The fact of the matter is a lot of money is being spent duping us, the public, and I think we all know this but tolerate it. Perhaps the difference here between the CDO scandal and the current advertising is we didn’t know what the banks were doing before the GFC with CDOs etc. It would appear Alan Greenspan didn’t so you can’t blame us. The common ground here is that there is a serious and morally questionable re-calibration of the truth in both cases. Take for example Dick Smith going into liquidation with the possibility of workers not receiving their entitlements. If the financial press is anything to go by, the decision by the banks to ‘pull the pin’ was based on timing whereby Dick Smith had received its inventory and sold it but not paid most of its suppliers (Apple and Samsung being two notable savvy exceptions) and cash had been generated by the sale of gift cards, most of which have not been redeemed and will not be honoured. I would love to see the Steve Smith advert re-cast with the long-suffering cricket Mum being given the day off, not to go to the day spa, but truck herself around the shopping centres trying to buy something using her Dick Smith gift card. My hunch is she would look a lot more frazzled on returning at the close of play!

Getshort

The myth that we have constantly fed to us is that the banks value us as a customer. I had my own first-hand experience lately with my Com Bank Mastercard that put this to the test. Having used the Allianz travel insurance associated with using my card to buy a holiday, I unfortunately had cause to claim based on a delay and missing flights and accommodation in the UK and Spain. Allianz, if their adverts are anything to go by, are a ‘Yes: What’s the question?’ kind of company. Their advert has their lovely Call Centre person going ‘Ah Allianz’ finishing the sentence of the poor fool who had just done something stupid and exclaiming ‘Ahhhhhh!!’. My experience was slightly different. Without drawing this out my response from them was  ‘Ah Allianz…NO’. So I thought I would cancel my credit card given Allianz was merely an agent acting on behalf of Commonwealth Bank. And so I proceeded to do so. That was an interesting exercise in tenacity requiring a few conversations with the call centres. Never in one of the conversations did any of those I spoke to at the Bank ask what they could do to put it right and what would keep me as a customer. I’ve never had one late payment and I’ve always paid in full by the due date. The cynical out there might suggest that’s why they couldn’t care less about me breaking my ties with them. Contrast that with Amex who I rather uncharacteristically had an issue with recently. They asked me what they could do to make me feel valued and while I was putting my mind to that, they proffered 30,000 rewards points. To scale that, I would have to spend $30,000 to get that through my own endeavours. Wow!

At our place we have found as we have moved from the articulation of the concept of cherishing the customer, and put our efforts into actually meaning this, – rather than getting the client to think we mean it – our business has grown. That doesn’t mean you can’t have the stern discussions when needed. That doesn’t mean there are some customers you actually don’t want. But the key here is honesty, integrity and being authentic. These are fantastic characteristics to have in business, as they are to have in life. In The Big Short Brad Pitt plays the character with the conscience. When the two young protégés celebrate when they realise they have just struck pay-dirt when shorting against the housing market, he makes it clear that their ‘whooping and hollering’ is a preface to a worldwide collapse leaving millions out of work and destitute. A timely intervention.

I’ll leave you with some lines from the movie.

‘The banks got greedy and we can profit from their stupidity.’

‘Fraud has never ever worked. Eventually things go south. When the hell did we forget all that?’

‘You target strippers with bad loans?’ ANZ might find this line a little close to the bone!

‘The American people are getting screwed by the big banks.’ You slot a country of your choice in here.

Chilling words and all arising from deception. A deception that is perpetuated in our living rooms every night. Don’t take my word for it, suspend judgement until the final line of the movie just before the credits roll….

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