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Tag Archives: CDOs

The Terminology of Life at the Top

08 Friday Jul 2016

Posted by Burning Manager in Uncategorized

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BOM, Brexit, Bureau of Metereology, Business Insider Australia, CDOs, CEO, CTC, GFC, global financial crisis, Gonski, Kevin 07, Lafarge, Malcolm Turnbull, Pauline Hanson, PM, Prime Minister, S&P, Standard and Poors, The Construction Training Centre

Kevin 07

My Name’s Phil and I’m Here to Help!

 

I’ve been a CEO over 20 years and this week I passed the milestone of 10 years as CEO of the Construction Training Centre. According to Business Insider Australia the average tenure of a CEO is 9.7 years so I’ve managed, just, to scrape over that particular hurdle.

They rather unhelpfully, from my perspective, think the optimal lifespan of a CEO is a mere 4.8 years. Gulp! That’s to suggest I’ve outstayed my welcome by some 5.2 years. They cite three main reasons why CEO’s generally move on being burn out or loss of enthusiasm for the job, external changes in the market where skill set requirements change and when Board’s decide enough is enough. And I get all of that. It’s hard to maintain drive once you emerge from a purple patch. For many the inexorable torrent of KPI achievement gets to the point when alternatives look rosier. Quite often CEO’s transition to not for profits tired by the singularity of the commercial world. Others, and I’d like to think I’m one of them, aim to expand the outcome metric such that there are a range of measures by which one can evaluate their own performance and therefore continue to grow and thrive.

I call these pivots. In the brave new Australian business world, without the ballast of our resources sector in overdrive, we have to look elsewhere to drive economic growth to generate the prosperity that we have become so accustomed to. As a country we need to pivot. This was one of the messages of the Coalition’s not so successful election campaign in the Federal election. At the time of writing, almost a week on, we are still not definitively clear as to who will govern the country. If you think the lifespan of a company CEO is short, spare a thought for the CEO of our country; the Prime Minister.

Over the last five years we have had something like five Prime Ministers. There are all sorts of performance metrics to determine whether a Prime Minster is successful but it appears to me we only look at a few when making this judgment. The first is the country’s financial performance which in a globalised world is not really in the full control of the government anyway. In CEO terms this is the state of the balance sheet and importantly, in the short-time horizon thinking that besets both Boards and voters, the profit and loss. For Prime Ministers there is the other key measure which is the opinion poll measuring the most nebulous of characteristics – popularity? Be warned. Popularity can easily beget populism.

Rednecks

With the rise of Trump, Lafarge, Xenophon, Hanson et al serious political commentators and writers are warning of the danger of the tide of populism that is entering the world of politics. Populism can mean many things to many people. To some it’s having their local representative totally aligned to their own views and in these cases they regard their politician as ‘on the money’ and ‘in touch’. One of the worst criticisms that can be levelled against a politician is that he or she is out of touch. Populism though for me is a kind of giddy political surfing where the incumbent politician rides a number of waves hoping always to catch the best ride to take them safely to the beach. The only grasp you get of their underpinning values, beliefs and thought processes is the particular fad (wave) of the day.

So how should we measure a politician’s success? One logical way is to define what the criteria for success is from the outset. If we carry the hypothesis forward that the PM is the CEO of the country then we might just be able to use the essential success factors of a CEO as a guide. Getting an overall consensus of what makes a successful CEO is no easy feat but there is a consensus of sorts that suggest the CEO only needs to do three things:

  • Set the overall vision and strategy and communicates this to all stakeholders;
  • Get the best skilled people together to make the vision a reality; and
  • Make sure there’s enough cash in the bank.

Applying this to our recent election then….

The message from Malcolm Turnbull was one of jobs and growth. The rhetoric of this was repeated in a mantra-like fashion but what wasn’t clear to many, I would suggest, is what this means to the individual in the street. Underpinning all of this is this vague concept of innovation. Innovation as a buzz word caught on quicker than a Medicare text alert. As an aside I put myself in Turnbull’s shoes when the Medicare ‘text’ scare emerged. He never really properly neutralised this attack. I would have issued a Coalition Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) storm warning text the morning of the polling saying something like. ‘BOM Beware- dangerous tropical cyclone Hanson on the horizon’. So on the count of clear message Turnbull, the supposed great communicator, was found wanting.

Getting the best skilled people to make the vision a reality comes down to how we educate and train our people to confront what’s coming. The challenges are many and while, yes, it’s an exciting time to be an Australian I think it’s also a scary time for a young school leaver or graduate (from Uni or TAFE) to firstly choose a career path that has some degree of protection from automation and secondly to be able to ply your ‘trade’ in a meaningful job in your field of study. This to me was the missing opportunity in the campaign. Labor focused on education only with respect to Gonski which I’m still convinced very few Australians (me being one of them) understand the detail of, or rationale behind. We need to radically address education and training across all spectrums of pre-school, primary, secondary, VET and tertiary if we want to compete globally. This is an even better legacy to leave behind than a huge surplus which we partly squandered on school halls. Perhaps our surplus in the Rudd years would have better spent on soft education structures than physical ones.

FannieFreddieCartoon-thumb-510x337

The final measure is cash in the bank. We have had a shot across the bows this week from Standard and Poors who have put us on credit watch suggesting that our much treasured AAA credit rating is in jeopardy if we don’t start addressing our growing deficit. For me this is a simplistic view and I have complete disdain for these rating agencies. We should always remember that they gave AAA credit ratings to bundled collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) that in reality were of junk bond value. And we all know where that led…that’s right the GFC.

Final

As I reflect back on my ten years I have achieved consistently across the three key success criteria. For me though that is no real measure of success. Those three are a given that any CEO is expected to achieve and therefore I don’t think you can really judge your time with any sense of pride if those has been your sole outcome. For a PM one key measure surely must be the degree of community cohesion. This is important right now with elements in the Senate with an agenda likely to cause social division. As a CEO this translates into how well the team is gelling to get results. Perhaps the most important test is how well are those for whom you have stewardship faring. For a PM that is how content and cohesive is the community. For the CEO this translates to the degree of well-being expressed by the work team. Our recent staff survey would suggest that we are in pretty good shape. For me the whole-hearted employee is what we should strive for. Achieve this and you just know your customers will be taken care of. All Turnbull needs to do now, on the eve of his first term as an elected PM, is get his team to work as one, sharpen his message, get it out there, bring us back to surplus and make us all happier and content with the way things are. Good luck with all that. With 20 years under my belt, and to quote a fellow Queenslander, my name’s Phil and I’m here to help!

All Credit to Shorty

20 Wednesday Jan 2016

Posted by Burning Manager in Uncategorized

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AAA, Alan Greenspan, Allianz, Amercian Express, AMEX, ANZ, Bear Stearns, BOQ, Brad Pitt, CDOs, Commonwealth Bank, Deutsche bank, Dick Smith, Get Shorty, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Margot Robbie, Mastercard, NAB, Rating agencies, Steve Carell, Steve Smith, The Big Short

 

file_606778_big-short-cast

I did something a little odd last week. I saw The Big Short with my stock broker. It wasn’t intentional. I had just settled into my seat then along he came with his family and plonked himself down right in front of me. An ex-Goldman Sachs man, I had cause on more than one occasion to lean forward and give him a reminder nudge (of the ‘nod nod’ ‘wink wink’ variety) or comforting hand on shoulder.

Great movie. Eminently watchable, even for those for whom the world of banking and finance holds little interest. It takes the audience on the magic carpet ride that was the Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs) in the US Housing market and the shameless acts of the banks and, worse still, the ratings agencies. The cast were routinely in fine form especially Steve Carell and the very brief interlude by  Margot Robbie explaining what a CDO is, while drinking champagne in her bubble bath, worth the price of the ticket alone.

30192FEB00000578-3396122-OPening_scene_Margot_Robbie_plays_a_champagne_swilling_blonde_in-a-14_1452644414548

I once populated the world of Private Equity in London so have some of the flavour of the heady environment, or more accurately bubble, in which these rarefied species exist. In fact I have been at one time a bubble-dweller myself. Never threw a dwarf – I admit- but did see dwarves thrown. It is, by nature, a high adrenaline ride where self comes before team, comes before company, comes before common good. This is portrayed accurately by the Ryan Gosling character as he sets up his company Deutsche Bank for a fall and himself for a windfall (as a funny aside I right clicked Deutsche to get the correct spelling and it came up with douche which when inserted in a sentence as  ‘douche bank’ sounds remarkably and accurately like something else).

I haven’t come here to bury the banks, nor praise them though. I just want to reflect on some issues around the Customer. What the film does very well is show us how little regard was given to the customer in the all the deception that was the CDO scandal. Wrapped up as much more stable than they were, sub-prime mortgages were bundled and then rated as AAA by the ratings agencies and the banks flicked these on as ‘copper-bottomed’ investments to the unsuspecting institutions and the public. There might be those who would suggest that it’s caveat emptor out there and sophisticated investors must be ever vigilant. While schadenfreude is a lovely cold gazpacho, it is worth reminding ourselves that along with the ‘filthy rich’, local councils and charities were duped into what they thought were sound investments and we all suffer as a result.

Seldom does an evening at home pass (except of course on Netflix) that we aren’t seduced by advertising that the banks are wonderful and they really have our best interests at heart. Take for example Steve Smith, our illustrious cricket captain (and good reliable bloke), who with the assistance of Commonwealth Bank (our largest and of which I am a shareholder) helps out a long-suffering cricket Mum with a makeover while he takes the kids to cricket. Who can CAN make this happen? – Commonwealth Bank of course. This is competing with the ‘NAB gets you’ clearly targeted at small business, until they call in the loan and then really get you. Bank of Queensland poses the question as to whether you can really love a bank? The advert’s underlying thesis is you can – BOQ who else? Try asking Bear Sterns or Lehman Brothers account holders that question.

The fact of the matter is a lot of money is being spent duping us, the public, and I think we all know this but tolerate it. Perhaps the difference here between the CDO scandal and the current advertising is we didn’t know what the banks were doing before the GFC with CDOs etc. It would appear Alan Greenspan didn’t so you can’t blame us. The common ground here is that there is a serious and morally questionable re-calibration of the truth in both cases. Take for example Dick Smith going into liquidation with the possibility of workers not receiving their entitlements. If the financial press is anything to go by, the decision by the banks to ‘pull the pin’ was based on timing whereby Dick Smith had received its inventory and sold it but not paid most of its suppliers (Apple and Samsung being two notable savvy exceptions) and cash had been generated by the sale of gift cards, most of which have not been redeemed and will not be honoured. I would love to see the Steve Smith advert re-cast with the long-suffering cricket Mum being given the day off, not to go to the day spa, but truck herself around the shopping centres trying to buy something using her Dick Smith gift card. My hunch is she would look a lot more frazzled on returning at the close of play!

Getshort

The myth that we have constantly fed to us is that the banks value us as a customer. I had my own first-hand experience lately with my Com Bank Mastercard that put this to the test. Having used the Allianz travel insurance associated with using my card to buy a holiday, I unfortunately had cause to claim based on a delay and missing flights and accommodation in the UK and Spain. Allianz, if their adverts are anything to go by, are a ‘Yes: What’s the question?’ kind of company. Their advert has their lovely Call Centre person going ‘Ah Allianz’ finishing the sentence of the poor fool who had just done something stupid and exclaiming ‘Ahhhhhh!!’. My experience was slightly different. Without drawing this out my response from them was  ‘Ah Allianz…NO’. So I thought I would cancel my credit card given Allianz was merely an agent acting on behalf of Commonwealth Bank. And so I proceeded to do so. That was an interesting exercise in tenacity requiring a few conversations with the call centres. Never in one of the conversations did any of those I spoke to at the Bank ask what they could do to put it right and what would keep me as a customer. I’ve never had one late payment and I’ve always paid in full by the due date. The cynical out there might suggest that’s why they couldn’t care less about me breaking my ties with them. Contrast that with Amex who I rather uncharacteristically had an issue with recently. They asked me what they could do to make me feel valued and while I was putting my mind to that, they proffered 30,000 rewards points. To scale that, I would have to spend $30,000 to get that through my own endeavours. Wow!

At our place we have found as we have moved from the articulation of the concept of cherishing the customer, and put our efforts into actually meaning this, – rather than getting the client to think we mean it – our business has grown. That doesn’t mean you can’t have the stern discussions when needed. That doesn’t mean there are some customers you actually don’t want. But the key here is honesty, integrity and being authentic. These are fantastic characteristics to have in business, as they are to have in life. In The Big Short Brad Pitt plays the character with the conscience. When the two young protégés celebrate when they realise they have just struck pay-dirt when shorting against the housing market, he makes it clear that their ‘whooping and hollering’ is a preface to a worldwide collapse leaving millions out of work and destitute. A timely intervention.

I’ll leave you with some lines from the movie.

‘The banks got greedy and we can profit from their stupidity.’

‘Fraud has never ever worked. Eventually things go south. When the hell did we forget all that?’

‘You target strippers with bad loans?’ ANZ might find this line a little close to the bone!

‘The American people are getting screwed by the big banks.’ You slot a country of your choice in here.

Chilling words and all arising from deception. A deception that is perpetuated in our living rooms every night. Don’t take my word for it, suspend judgement until the final line of the movie just before the credits roll….

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