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Monthly Archives: December 2016

2016 – A Fine Year for Dead Renegades

30 Friday Dec 2016

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George Michael, Muhammad Ali, Wham

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It’s never over till it’s over, so my ‘final’ blog of 2016 in which I did a brief collection of obituaries was a week too premature. The last week or so has ended with a flurry with George Michael, Carrie Fischer and Debbie Reynolds all parting this mortal coil. I also overlooked Mohammed Ali in my collection – a huge oversight by any reckoning.

For this blog I would like to concentrate on George Michael. His music was the pop music of my halcyon days and while I would rubbish the sound of Wham and the lack of musical sophistication of their fans I actually had a sneaky liking for the treacle music that they produced. It was bouncy, simple and optimistic and a real foil for the dark and complex music that I absorbed myself in. ‘Wake Me Up Before You Go Go’ prior to a major presentation or sales pitch is much more likely to get you across the line than a rendition of Zeppelin’s Black Dog for example.

Seldom do those breaking away from bands to go solo actually make it. Robbie Williams leaving Take That did it and coincidentally his first foray as a solo act was a version of a George Michael song. George Michael though achieved this feat with apparent ease writing most of his own material. Aside from Careless Whisper being ‘our song’ for myself and my wife when we started out on this journey I really admired Michael for the attitude he took to his ‘art’. Perhaps not known by many but he took on Sony over artistic rights which cost him a great deal financially and emotionally but he stuck to his guns and he kept his integrity intact. Not many artists can say that. He argued but lost the case, the courts deciding not to let him out of a contract Michael said would bind him to Sony for 15 years (8 albums). As a result he was absent from the music scene for two years, eventually paying Sony $40m to release him. Fellow 2016 fatality Prince, was going through the same situation at the time. It seems that sticking to your truth in the music business is important. The reason there are more examples there than elsewhere might have to do with the fact that the music business is in fact just that – a business and the oil of the artist versus the water of the executives never really mixes well. Or maybe it’s because speaking your truth comes more naturally for an art form that is all about verbalised expression?

Muhammad Ali likewise stuck it to the man with his refusal to serve during the Vietnam War. Imagine doing what Ali did in today’s world. In the US or Australia for that matter to become a Muslim and decide not to support your country at war would be met with a tirade of abuse especially on social media. Serving the ultimate price with a conviction for draft dodging Ali was a man true to himself. In sticking to his guns he lost four years of boxing. To ‘rehabilitate’ himself in the eyes of the public (public opinion) he did what few have done before or will do in the future. His lesson for the business world is the importance of authenticity. He was, above all, always Muhammad Ali.

It’s important to bring the same degree of ethics and adherence to your core beliefs in the business world. We need to do more than just ‘speak our truth’ which said relentlessly can become boorish and carping. Rather we should lead by example and live our truth through the way we conduct ourselves. Michael was a good example and one we could learn more from in the business world. There will be those who said he was of a dubious moral character but fly-tipping a fridge-freezer for Annie Lennox into Stuart Copeland’s skip under the cover of darkness is not really that bad. What George Michael was, was a singer of some of the catchiest songs of his era with quite possibly the purest male pop/rock voice in the history of modern music. With Prince and George knocking around together in the cosmos I can see a few music executives ducking for cover, especially if they have Cassius Marcellus Clay as their personal protection.

From 9 to 1 – let the countdown begin

23 Friday Dec 2016

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2016, 2017, 5th Beatle, Alan Rickman, Billy Paul, Daniel Berrigan, David Bowie, Gary Shandling, George Martin, Jo Cox, Lakshmi, Leonard Cohen, liberals, Merle Haggard, numerology, Prince, progressives, Ronnie Corbett, Shiva, Space Oddity, Terry Wogan, Trump, Vicotira Wood, Zaha Hadid

Those of a numerological bent will know that 2016 was a ‘9’ which is the number of completion and endings. So we look forward to 2017 with a huge sense of relief and anticipation now that the year is almost behind us. 2017 is a ‘1’, which is about renewal – a new cycle. Words associated with ‘1’ are vitality, union and discipline. I can think of no greater watch words for the British and US leadership than these three as they navigate Brexit and the US Presidency; both ‘surprises’ sprung upon us in the year just closing.

In reflection mode it is also time to pause and think of those no longer with us. For each reader there may be deeply personal partings, but in terms of ‘famous’ people it has been a ‘stellar’ year if that’s an appropriate turn of phrase for those who have re-joined the stars. I would like to reflect on a few who have inspired me, or left some impression on this earth on their way through.

France David Bowie

David Bowie:

Very few knew he was ill, but this charismatic and constantly evolving musical chameleon used his own death-bed in a video that addressed directly the inevitability of our mortality and how art can transcend the mortal world and create legacy that means we become immortal. His musical catalogue, without a doubt, leaves some of the greatest songs of modern music to this and future generations. It just surprised me that it took so long for an astronaut to take a guitar into space and sing Space Oddity!

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Gary Shandling:

A comic genius, Shandling is best known for It’s Gary Shandling’s Show and the Larry Sanders Show. He was a forerunner to Seinfeld and I have the feeling that Shandling cleared a path enabling the success that Seinfeld has become, particularly breaking the fourth wall. One of my favourite witty lines by Shandling, who was brilliant at stand up as well as sitcom and writing, goes something like. ‘I once made love for an hour and fifteen minutes, but it was the night the clocks are set ahead.’

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Billy Paul:

Philadelphia born soul man most famous for ‘Me and Mrs Jones’ whose complete discography was better known to hardened soul fans like myself. Subject to an earlier blog this year, Paul was also an activist on race issues. Check his back catalogue on You Tube.

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Prince:

Symbolic, magical and mercurial are three words to describe what now looks like a troubled soul, whose rivalry for the top slot with Michael Jackson seems to have extended to the dramatic trauma of their demise.

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Terry Wogan:

Unless you grew up in the UK in the 1980s-2000s you may not know of Wogan, but he graced BBC TV every week night interviewing celebrities. What distinguished Wogan, an Irishman in ‘enemy’ territory, was the quickness of his wit and his authenticity. To see him at his best was to listen to his ‘commentary’ of many Eurovision Song contests. His hilarious summation of the scoring system, whereby centuries old connections or animosities would bubble to the surface, was a delight to hear. It’s no coincidence that Brexit happened because Terry wasn’t there to lampoon it.

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George Martin:

Often known as the 5th Beatle, Martin had a significant role in shaping the Beatles sound. He is probably most known for the strings on Yesterday and the trumpet part on Strawberry Fields Forever. I used to work in Liverpool not far from Strawberry Field so I feel an affinity with anything associated with the Beatles. Claims over the 5th Beatle status caused a rift between Lennon and McCartney, but as Lennon softened so did his attitude to the notion of the value of Martin’s contribution.

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Zaha Hadid:

Iraqi born, British architect Hadid changed the face of modern architecture and her influence will live on for many decades to come, partly because of her leading the way as a woman in a predominantly male field. She was subject of a previous blog of mine.

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Daniel Berrigan:

Radical Jesuit priest, activist, educator and poet lived his life as an example of radical spirituality which offers a template for those who find our obsession with wealth vacuous. Subject of a previous blog of mine.

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Merle Haggard:

You don’t have to like country music to know that The Hag played a seminal role in the American music landscape of the 60s to 80s. He had 38 number one hits on the Billboard Country Charts and has influenced many a modern writers including the Bruce Springsteen, John Fogerty, George Thorogood and Keith Richards. He famously attended the San Quentin concert of Johnny Cash in 1958 as an inmate but turned his life around.

SOS -Rev - Ronnie Corbett

Ronnie Corbett:

One of the great comic pairings of all time, in the Two Ronnies with fellow British comedian Ronnie Barker. Scottish-born, he had that marvellous self-deprecating story-telling style often joking at his own expense about his diminutive stature. His cameo in Ricky Gervais’ Extras where he does cocaine at an award ceremony is priceless and created the memorable line. ‘Corbett. It’s always bloody Corbett.’

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Victoria Wood:

2016 was a good year for dead comedians! Wood was a staple on British television in the 1980s. She was across all genres of comedy and was accomplished at writing, sitcoms, screen-writing, directing and song-writing. Her funny musical ditties still delight and age better than you might think. Immensely likeable she received 4 BAFTAs from an amazing 14 nominations.

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 Leonard Cohen:

Subject of a previous blog, there aren’t many superlatives left to describe one of the greatest singer-songwriters of the modern era. Had Cohen been alive it would have been a close run thing for the Nobel Prize for Literature between he and Dylan.

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Jo Cox:

In the lead-up to Brexit Yorkshire politician Jo Cox lost her life, killed by a voter not happy with her ‘remain’ stance for Europe. Young, full of energy and by all accounts the politician you really want as your own, she will forever remain the face of what could have been and what actually was: a campaign so vitriolic that an allegedly sane person saw fit to bring he life tragically to an end to make a point.

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Alan Rickman:

An actor of real quality, particularly on the stage and particularly of Shakespeare, he had a depth that took him seamlessly from romantic comedy (Love Always) to drama (Sense and Sensibility). Many will remember him for his role in the Harry Potter opus as Severus Snape. Now I have all of the Christmas TV re-runs to work out was Snape a ‘baddy’ or a ‘goody’?

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Un-named Progressive Liberal:

It has struck me with the rise of populism that we also saw the death of the progressive or socially liberal in 2016. Politics should at the very least have some degree of equality or improvement manifesto or ideology that underpins it, be it equality of opportunity through access to education, or improvement of one’s position through ‘trickle-down’. Today it would appear that no-one wants to be worse off to assist others. There are times when someone has to be worse off and it is increasingly clear that very few want themselves or their ‘tribe’ to be that person or that cohort.

Without some loss there cannot be reform, nor paradoxically can there be equity. Those sick of losing in 2016 struck back and we now face a year of uncertainty with Trump staring down Putin and Xi Jinping. Maybe the much needed stability in the world order will come when the ‘haves and have yachts’ give a little for the benefit of others. After all, the best way to secure one’s private wealth is to have political and economic stability to establish a solid investment climate.

As my regular readers know I’m not long back from India so it’s still playing on my mind. One of the ‘1’ words is also Goddess of which there are hundreds of thousands in India. There are two prime ones you can choose from depending on your state of mind. One is Shiva, the Destroyer and the other is Lakshmi, the Goddess of wealth, fortune and prosperity. It’s my new year’s wish for us all, especially in business and politics, that we see the rise of the latter and not the former.

By (Bye) the Numbers

09 Friday Dec 2016

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Betsy DeVos, Bill Gates, Borat, Dick Smith, Facebook, Google, Harvard Business Review, HBR, Kazakhstan, Mike Moore, Nate Silver, OECD, Ricahrd Branson, Steve Jobs, Trump

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A few things have happened recently that have had me look again at numbers and as usual I shall try to pull the threads together. While our near neighbours New Zealand might be reeling from their seismic events of late (7.6 on the Richster Scale), a less dramatic but no less significant event has happened in Australia in the last week or so. The much-vaunted Australian education system took a further hit with the announcement of the OECD education rankings which showed for mathematics we are now behind the nation glorious of Kazakhstan (of Borat fame). Sobering news indeed.

Then there was the spectre of the Trump election and the appointment of Betsy DeVos (just one ‘S’ from being a quirky 1970s art rock band). Part of the Amway family by marriage it’s pretty certain she will know how to do numbers so perhaps math in the US education system will get some heft. In fact it’s looking like the Trump Cabinet will be pretty well endowed numbers-wise. According to NBC News net worth of $14.5B between them. The Australian national debt only sits $44.5b by comparison.

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Under DeVos there will certainly be lots of math tutoring vouchers available that’s for sure. And the US needs to be up the rankings as well because it, too, falls beneath Kazakhstan AND Australia. Strange that, given when it comes to R&D and real smarts, the US seems to out-rank just about every other nation (Israel aside). Perhaps the quality of school-based education doesn’t count for too much after all? Maybe it’s our University sector that’s all-important? But oh yes we are dropping in those stakes as well (refer previous blogs).

Reflecting on the US Presidential race at a safe distance now, I, and am sure a lot of pundits, are trying to work out what went wrong with the predictions. Nate Silver, the guru amongst pollsters, got it completely wrong. Pollsters got Brexit wrong and even though they were armed with that aberration they still somehow crunched their US pre-polling numbers incorrectly. So when we are told to focus on the numbers and cast aside feelings and impressions we find that the numbers don’t really yield the right answers. In fact the pundit who seemed to predict the election result most accurately did it on ‘gut instinct’ and that was Mike Moore. If you read his website you will see that his assessment based on grass roots discussions was eminently more accurate than Silver’s.

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We are constantly reminded of the presence of big data and I think few of us understand what it is, other than it involves data and it is ..err big! I wonder sometimes whether the glib reference to this is because the data isn’t that big, or that special? Take analytics. The intelligence that sits behind our social media presence and our buying behaviour is now highly sought after with mainstream retailers paying lots for a more acute analysis of our expenditure patterns. Facebook and Google charge huge amounts (cumulatively that is) for Adwords etc. to promote your website and your brand/presence. I’ve done a lot of this and I cannot say that it has been that successful. Apparently the backend of these social media platforms can, with great precision, reach a highly targeted market. What if the models being used were as accurate as Nate Silver’s big data analysis?

When it comes to feelings and hunches the business world stands aghast. We are meant to use data, increasingly available in larger volumes thanks to super-computing, to make decision. Managers are taught to be all knowing scrutineers of numbers. Stock market analysts are great runners of the numbers and yet they seem to, time and again, fail to spot the complete dog that goes down the toilet – your money with it. Take Dick Smith. That turd was finely polished and the analysts got it sold to even the reasonably sophisticated investor and yet if you ever shopped in one of their stores you would immediately call your broker shortly thereafter and relinquish your holding. I can think of no clearer case of going with your gut and avoiding the numbers.

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The latest November edition of the Harvard Business Review ranked the world’s top 100 CEOs. The top three Martin Sorrell, Lars Rebien Sorenmson and Pablo Isla were interviewed in depth. What they said may surprise you. Isla, CEO of Inditex, is one of the world’s largest fashion retailers where one would suppose sales data and customer buying behaviours would be the absolute touchstone of the company. Rather he says ‘I’m gradually learning to be less rational and more emotional.’ He’s not alone. Entrepreneurs like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Richard Branson all placed or place a lot of emphasis on the ‘hunch’. For them it would appear that the gut instinct is more of a business guide than a complex data set.

So next time someone has done the numbers, be it a TV pundit, a politician or a business consultant be very wary. What does your ‘gut’ tell you? Don’t be misled by the whole ‘post-truth’ shtick that’s oscillating around at the moment. Perhaps the lack of respect certain sectors of the population have for ‘experts’ stems not from their lack of understanding of numbers, or the scientific method, or even from a  ‘chip-on-the-shoulder’ reaction to a burgeoning well-educated demographic but a lived experience where the numbers don’t quite stack up on many occasions. For example the economy has been growing, employment has been improving but their standards of living have declined.

So next time you are confronted with a league table, like our ‘dive’ in the math sweep stakes, it might be worth asking what method was used to determine the relative positions, what sample size was used, how was validity and reliability achieved and what vested interests existed for some counties to ‘fluff’ the figures? We might not be as bad as we are told. Go figure!

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